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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kanazawa — J2 League 2018

Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kanazawa
Kanazawa
5/15/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 14Sunpro Alwin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Matsumoto Yamaga41%
×Draw26%
Kanazawa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.38
Kanazawa
1.19

Matsumoto Yamaga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 126 away

creates per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.22
Kanazawa
1.25

allows per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.13
Kanazawa
1.54

finishing

Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par
Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matsumoto Yamaga ↓

Kanazawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Matsumoto Yamaga or draw
68%
Matsumoto Yamaga or Kanazawa
74%
Draw or Kanazawa
59%

Winning margin

Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
19%
Kanazawa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
75%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
40%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
16%
Kanazawa 1+ goals
70%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
33%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
56%
Kanazawa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.22 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
41%
level
26%
Kanazawa scores more
32%

Matsumoto Yamaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Matsumoto Yamaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–0 Kanazawa

Matsumoto Yamaga and Kanazawa drew 0-0 in J2 League on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Sunpro Alwin Stadium in Matsumoto.