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Matonense vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Matonense
Matonense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
Kaka 69'
Dudu Black 50'
6/7/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Matonense48%
×Draw29%
Sao Carlos23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matonense
1.29
Sao Carlos
0.80

Matonense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Matonense
1.14
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Matonense
1.00
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Matonense+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 65Over: 3565%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matonense ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Matonense or draw
77%
Matonense or Sao Carlos
71%
Draw or Sao Carlos
52%

Winning margin

Matonense wins by 2+
22%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Matonense 1+ goals
72%
Matonense 2+ goals
37%
Matonense 3+ goals
14%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
55%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
19%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Matonense (draw refunded)
67%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matonense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matonense attack 1.14 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Matonense scores more
48%
level
29%
Sao Carlos scores more
23%

Matonense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Matonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
Dudu Black
69'
Kaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matonense vs Sao Carlos

Matonense and Sao Carlos drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on June 7, 2026.

Goals: Dudu Black (50'), Kaka (69').