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Matlock Town vs Rotherham — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Matlock Town
Matlock Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
J. Abbey 8'
Trialist 52'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Matlock Town40%
×Draw21%
Rotherham39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matlock Town
2.06
Rotherham
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Matlock Town
3.25
Rotherham
2.80

allows per match

Matlock Town
1.25
Rotherham
0.87

finishing

Matlock Town+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matlock Town ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Matlock Town or draw
61%
Matlock Town or Rotherham
79%
Draw or Rotherham
60%

Winning margin

Matlock Town wins by 2+
22%
Rotherham wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Matlock Town 1+ goals
87%
Matlock Town 2+ goals
61%
Matlock Town 3+ goals
34%
Rotherham 1+ goals
87%
Rotherham 2+ goals
60%
Rotherham 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Matlock Town (draw refunded)
51%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matlock Town at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rotherham away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matlock Town attack 3.25 + Rotherham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rotherham attack 2.80 + Matlock Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Matlock Town scores more
40%
level
21%
Rotherham scores more
39%

Matlock Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Matlock Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
J. Abbey
52'
Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matlock Town vs Rotherham

Matlock Town and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: J. Abbey (8'), Trialist (52').