Matlock Town 0–2 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Matlock Town

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Barnsley

7/4/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Matlock Town58%

×Draw19%

Barnsley23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Matlock TownExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.54

Matlock Town

2.50

Barnsley

1.54

Matlock Town creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

4.00

creates per match

1.75

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Matlock Town

4.00

Barnsley

1.75

allows per match

Matlock Town

1.33

Barnsley

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matlock Town+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matlock Town ↓

Barnsley →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Matlock Town or draw

77%

Matlock Town or Barnsley

81%

Draw or Barnsley

42%

Winning margin

Matlock Town wins by 2+

37%

Barnsley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Matlock Town 1+ goals

92%

Matlock Town 2+ goals

71%

Matlock Town 3+ goals

45%

Barnsley 1+ goals

79%

Barnsley 2+ goals

45%

Barnsley 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Matlock Town (draw refunded)

72%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Matlock Town at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Matlock Town attack 4.00 + Barnsley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Barnsley attack 1.75 + Matlock Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Matlock Town scores more

58%

level

19%

Barnsley scores more

23%

Matlock Town at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Matlock Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff