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Mathare United vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 1
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
2/24/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mathare United43%
×Draw28%
Wazito FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.29
Wazito FC
1.00

Mathare United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 77 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.13
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Mathare United
1.26
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
71%
Mathare United or Wazito FC
72%
Draw or Wazito FC
57%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
20%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
72%
Mathare United 2+ goals
37%
Mathare United 3+ goals
14%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
63%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
26%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
60%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.13 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Mathare United defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mathare United scores more
43%
level
28%
Wazito FC scores more
29%

Mathare United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Wazito FC

Mathare United and Wazito FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.