Mathare United 0–2 Tusker: Result & Stats

Mathare United

FT

0 – 2

Tusker

4/12/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 22Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Mathare United31%

×Draw28%

Tusker41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mathare UnitedExpected goals in this matchTusker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.29

Mathare United

1.07

Tusker

1.29

Tusker creates 21% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 143 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.26

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Mathare United

1.13

Tusker

1.33

allows per match

Mathare United

1.26

Tusker

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par

Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Tusker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw

59%

Mathare United or Tusker

72%

Draw or Tusker

69%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+

12%

Tusker wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals

66%

Mathare United 2+ goals

29%

Mathare United 3+ goals

9%

Tusker 1+ goals

72%

Tusker 2+ goals

37%

Tusker 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)

43%

Tusker (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.13 + Tusker defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Tusker attack 1.33 + Mathare United defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mathare United scores more

31%

level

28%

Tusker scores more

41%

Tusker at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff