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Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
2/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United64%
×Draw23%
Mombasa Elite13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.73
Mombasa Elite
0.63

Mathare United creates 175% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.84
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Mathare United
0.47
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
87%
Mathare United or Mombasa Elite
77%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
36%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
37%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
82%
Mathare United 2+ goals
52%
Mathare United 3+ goals
25%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
47%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
13%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
83%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.84 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Mathare United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mathare United scores more
64%
level
23%
Mombasa Elite scores more
13%

Mathare United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Mombasa Elite

Mathare United beat Mombasa Elite 2-0 in Super League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.