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Mathare United vs MCF — Super League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MCF
MCF
11/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United58%
×Draw26%
MCF17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.53
MCF
0.68

Mathare United creates 125% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 90 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.84
MCF
0.88

allows per match

Mathare United
0.47
MCF
1.22

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
MCF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

MCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
83%
Mathare United or MCF
74%
Draw or MCF
42%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
31%
MCF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
78%
Mathare United 2+ goals
45%
Mathare United 3+ goals
20%
MCF 1+ goals
49%
MCF 2+ goals
15%
MCF 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
78%
MCF (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

MCF away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.84 + MCF defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

MCF attack 0.88 + Mathare United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mathare United scores more
58%
level
26%
MCF scores more
17%

Mathare United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mathare United 1–0 MCF

Mathare United beat MCF 1-0 in Super League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.