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Mátészalka vs Tiszafuredi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mátészalka
Mátészalka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tiszafuredi VSE
Tiszafuredi VSE
10/20/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 12Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka26%
×Draw26%
Tiszafuredi VSE48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mátészalka
1.05
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.52

Tiszafuredi VSE creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Mátészalka
0.47
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.45

allows per match

Mátészalka
1.60
Tiszafuredi VSE
1.64

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par
Tiszafuredi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Tiszafuredi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw
52%
Mátészalka or Tiszafuredi VSE
74%
Draw or Tiszafuredi VSE
74%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+
10%
Tiszafuredi VSE wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals
65%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
28%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
9%
Tiszafuredi VSE 1+ goals
78%
Tiszafuredi VSE 2+ goals
45%
Tiszafuredi VSE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)
35%
Tiszafuredi VSE (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Tiszafuredi VSE away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.64 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Tiszafuredi VSE defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tiszafuredi VSE attack 1.45 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mátészalka scores more
26%
level
26%
Tiszafuredi VSE scores more
48%

Tiszafuredi VSE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tiszafuredi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mátészalka vs Tiszafuredi VSE

Mátészalka and Tiszafuredi VSE drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep in Mátészalka.