Mátészalka 0–1 Sényő Carnifex: Result & Stats

Mátészalka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sényő Carnifex

11/3/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 14Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka33%

×Draw26%

Sényő Carnifex41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MátészalkaExpected goals in this matchSényő Carnifex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.45

Mátészalka

1.27

Sényő Carnifex

1.45

Sényő Carnifex creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

0.47

creates per match

1.30

1.60

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Mátészalka

0.47

Sényő Carnifex

1.30

allows per match

Mátészalka

1.60

Sényő Carnifex

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par

Sényő Carnifex+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Sényő Carnifex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw

59%

Mátészalka or Sényő Carnifex

74%

Draw or Sényő Carnifex

67%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+

14%

Sényő Carnifex wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals

72%

Mátészalka 2+ goals

36%

Mátészalka 3+ goals

14%

Sényő Carnifex 1+ goals

77%

Sényő Carnifex 2+ goals

42%

Sényő Carnifex 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)

44%

Sényő Carnifex (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Sényő Carnifex away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Sényő Carnifex defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sényő Carnifex attack 1.30 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mátészalka scores more

33%

level

26%

Sényő Carnifex scores more

41%

Sényő Carnifex at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sényő Carnifex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff