Mátészalka 1–2 Putnok VSE: Result & Stats

Mátészalka

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Putnok VSE

3/2/2025

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 18Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka24%

×Draw25%

Putnok VSE52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MátészalkaExpected goals in this matchPutnok VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.61

Mátészalka

1.00

Putnok VSE

1.61

Putnok VSE creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

0.47

creates per match

1.63

1.60

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Mátészalka

0.47

Putnok VSE

1.63

allows per match

Mátészalka

1.60

Putnok VSE

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Putnok VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw

48%

Mátészalka or Putnok VSE

75%

Draw or Putnok VSE

76%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+

8%

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals

63%

Mátészalka 2+ goals

26%

Mátészalka 3+ goals

8%

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

80%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

48%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)

31%

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.00

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mátészalka scores more

24%

level

25%

Putnok VSE scores more

52%

Putnok VSE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff