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Mátészalka vs Nyiregyhaza II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mátészalka
Mátészalka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyiregyhaza II
Nyiregyhaza II
11/17/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 16Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka27%
×Draw24%
Nyiregyhaza II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mátészalka
1.20
Nyiregyhaza II
1.67

Nyiregyhaza II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mátészalka
0.47
Nyiregyhaza II
1.73

allows per match

Mátészalka
1.60
Nyiregyhaza II
1.93

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par
Nyiregyhaza II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Nyiregyhaza II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw
52%
Mátészalka or Nyiregyhaza II
76%
Draw or Nyiregyhaza II
73%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+
11%
Nyiregyhaza II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals
70%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
34%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
12%
Nyiregyhaza II 1+ goals
81%
Nyiregyhaza II 2+ goals
50%
Nyiregyhaza II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)
36%
Nyiregyhaza II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Nyiregyhaza II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Nyiregyhaza II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nyiregyhaza II attack 1.73 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mátészalka scores more
27%
level
24%
Nyiregyhaza II scores more
48%

Nyiregyhaza II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nyiregyhaza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mátészalka vs Nyiregyhaza II

Nyiregyhaza II beat Mátészalka 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep in Mátészalka.