Mátészalka 0–2 Kisvárda II: Result & Stats

Mátészalka

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kisvárda II

10/6/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 10Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka20%

×Draw26%

Kisvárda II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MátészalkaExpected goals in this matchKisvárda II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.52

Mátészalka

0.82

Kisvárda II

1.52

Kisvárda II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

0.47

creates per match

1.44

1.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Mátészalka

0.47

Kisvárda II

1.44

allows per match

Mátészalka

1.60

Kisvárda II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par

Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Kisvárda II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw

46%

Mátészalka or Kisvárda II

74%

Draw or Kisvárda II

80%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+

6%

Kisvárda II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals

56%

Mátészalka 2+ goals

20%

Mátészalka 3+ goals

5%

Kisvárda II 1+ goals

78%

Kisvárda II 2+ goals

45%

Kisvárda II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)

27%

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.82

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mátészalka scores more

20%

level

26%

Kisvárda II scores more

54%

Kisvárda II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff