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Mátészalka vs FC Hatvan — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mátészalka
Mátészalka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Hatvan
FC Hatvan
9/22/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 8Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka35%
×Draw27%
FC Hatvan38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mátészalka
1.25
FC Hatvan
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mátészalka
0.47
FC Hatvan
1.04

allows per match

Mátészalka
1.60
FC Hatvan
2.03

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par
FC Hatvan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

FC Hatvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw
62%
Mátészalka or FC Hatvan
73%
Draw or FC Hatvan
65%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+
15%
FC Hatvan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals
71%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
36%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
13%
FC Hatvan 1+ goals
73%
FC Hatvan 2+ goals
38%
FC Hatvan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)
48%
FC Hatvan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

FC Hatvan away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.03 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + FC Hatvan defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Hatvan attack 1.04 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mátészalka scores more
35%
level
27%
FC Hatvan scores more
38%

FC Hatvan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Hatvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mátészalka vs FC Hatvan

Mátészalka and FC Hatvan drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep in Mátészalka.