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Matelots vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
6/28/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots19%
×Draw24%
Unisport Bafang57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
0.86
Unisport Bafang
1.69

Unisport Bafang creates 97% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 38 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
43%
Matelots or Unisport Bafang
76%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
81%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
6%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
58%
Matelots 2+ goals
21%
Matelots 3+ goals
6%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
82%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
50%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
25%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Matelots scores more
19%
level
24%
Unisport Bafang scores more
57%

Unisport Bafang at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Unisport Bafang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matelots vs Unisport Bafang — Match Preview

Matelots face Unisport Bafang on June 28, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.