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Matelots vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
5/31/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots26%
×Draw26%
Stade de Bertoua49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
1.03
Stade de Bertoua
1.52

Stade de Bertoua creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
51%
Matelots or Stade de Bertoua
74%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
74%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
9%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
64%
Matelots 2+ goals
28%
Matelots 3+ goals
9%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
78%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
45%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
35%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Matelots scores more
26%
level
26%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
49%

Stade de Bertoua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stade de Bertoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matelots vs Stade de Bertoua — Match Preview

Matelots face Stade de Bertoua on May 31, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.