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Matelots vs Lion Blessé — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Lion Blessé
Lion Blessé
5/21/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots24%
×Draw25%
Lion Blessé51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
1.00
Lion Blessé
1.58

Lion Blessé creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Lion Blessé
0.83

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Lion Blessé
1.33

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Lion Blessé+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Lion Blessé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
49%
Matelots or Lion Blessé
75%
Draw or Lion Blessé
76%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
9%
Lion Blessé wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
63%
Matelots 2+ goals
26%
Matelots 3+ goals
8%
Lion Blessé 1+ goals
79%
Lion Blessé 2+ goals
47%
Lion Blessé 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
32%
Lion Blessé (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Lion Blessé away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Lion Blessé defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lion Blessé attack 0.83 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Matelots scores more
24%
level
25%
Lion Blessé scores more
51%

Lion Blessé at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lion Blessé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matelots vs Lion Blessé — Match Preview

Matelots face Lion Blessé on May 21, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.