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Matelots vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
6/18/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots32%
×Draw24%
Foncha ST44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
1.40
Foncha ST
1.69

Foncha ST creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 50 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
56%
Matelots or Foncha ST
76%
Draw or Foncha ST
68%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
14%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
75%
Matelots 2+ goals
41%
Matelots 3+ goals
17%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
82%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
50%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
42%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Matelots scores more
32%
level
24%
Foncha ST scores more
44%

Foncha ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matelots face Foncha ST (Elite Two)

Elite Two returns with Matelots hosting Foncha ST. Match starts June 18, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.