Matchakhela 4–0 Zestafoni: Result & Stats

Matchakhela

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Zestafoni

7/7/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 3rd RoundTsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Matchakhela28%

×Draw19%

Zestafoni53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatchakhelaExpected goals in this matchZestafoni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.65

Matchakhela

1.92

Zestafoni

2.65

Zestafoni creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

1.80

3.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Matchakhela

1.83

Zestafoni

1.80

allows per match

Matchakhela

3.50

Zestafoni

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par

Zestafoni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Zestafoni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw

47%

Matchakhela or Zestafoni

81%

Draw or Zestafoni

72%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+

14%

Zestafoni wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals

85%

Matchakhela 2+ goals

57%

Matchakhela 3+ goals

30%

Zestafoni 1+ goals

93%

Zestafoni 2+ goals

74%

Zestafoni 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)

35%

Zestafoni (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Zestafoni away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Zestafoni defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zestafoni attack 1.80 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Matchakhela scores more

28%

level

19%

Zestafoni scores more

53%

Zestafoni at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zestafoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff