Matchakhela 3–2 Shturmi: Result & Stats

Matchakhela

3 – 2

Shturmi

5/27/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Matchakhela10%

×Draw12%

Shturmi78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatchakhelaExpected goals in this matchShturmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

3.45

Matchakhela

1.22

Shturmi

3.45

Shturmi creates 183% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

3.40

3.50

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Matchakhela

1.83

Shturmi

3.40

allows per match

Matchakhela

3.50

Shturmi

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par

Shturmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Shturmi →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw

22%

Matchakhela or Shturmi

88%

Draw or Shturmi

90%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+

Shturmi wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals

70%

Matchakhela 2+ goals

34%

Matchakhela 3+ goals

12%

Shturmi 1+ goals

97%

Shturmi 2+ goals

85%

Shturmi 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)

11%

Shturmi (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Shturmi away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Shturmi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Shturmi attack 3.40 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Matchakhela scores more

10%

level

12%

Shturmi scores more

78%

Shturmi at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff