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Matchakhela vs Saburtalo II — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
AET
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
5/27/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matchakhela15%
×Draw15%
Saburtalo II70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.52
Saburtalo II
3.25

Saburtalo II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.83
Saburtalo II
3.00

allows per match

Matchakhela
3.50
Saburtalo II
1.22

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Saburtalo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
30%
Matchakhela or Saburtalo II
85%
Draw or Saburtalo II
85%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
6%
Saburtalo II wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
78%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
45%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
20%
Saburtalo II 1+ goals
96%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
83%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
18%
Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Saburtalo II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saburtalo II attack 3.00 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Matchakhela scores more
15%
level
15%
Saburtalo II scores more
70%

Saburtalo II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Saburtalo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Matchakhela 3–2 Saburtalo II

Matchakhela beat Saburtalo II 3-2 in David Kipiani Cup on May 27, 2023.