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Matchakhela vs Merani Tbilisi — Liga 3 2024

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
9/12/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Matchakhela29%
×Draw23%
Merani Tbilisi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.33
Merani Tbilisi
1.75

Merani Tbilisi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.13
Merani Tbilisi
1.16

allows per match

Matchakhela
2.33
Merani Tbilisi
1.53

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
53%
Matchakhela or Merani Tbilisi
77%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
71%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
13%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
74%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
38%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
15%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
83%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
52%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
38%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.13 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.16 + Matchakhela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Matchakhela scores more
29%
level
23%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
47%

Merani Tbilisi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matchakhela vs Merani Tbilisi

Matchakhela and Merani Tbilisi drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on September 12, 2024.