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Matchakhela vs Merani Martvili — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
2 – 4
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
5/12/2024David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · 1st RoundTsentraluri Stadioni Akhalsopeli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matchakhela26%
×Draw17%
Merani Martvili57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
2.17
Merani Martvili
3.17

Merani Martvili creates 46% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.83
Merani Martvili
2.83

allows per match

Matchakhela
3.50
Merani Martvili
2.50

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
43%
Matchakhela or Merani Martvili
83%
Draw or Merani Martvili
74%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
13%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
89%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
64%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
36%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
96%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
82%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
31%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 2.83, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Merani Martvili defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Merani Martvili attack 2.83 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Matchakhela scores more
26%
level
17%
Merani Martvili scores more
57%

Merani Martvili at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matchakhela vs Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili beat Matchakhela 4-2 in David Kipiani Cup on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Akhalsopeli in Akhalsopeli.