Matchakhela 2–1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

Matchakhela

FT

2 – 1

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

3/15/2024

Liga 3 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Matchakhela37%

×Draw22%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatchakhelaExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.85

Matchakhela

1.73

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.37

2.33

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Matchakhela

1.13

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

1.37

allows per match

Matchakhela

2.33

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw

59%

Matchakhela or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

78%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi II

63%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+

19%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals

82%

Matchakhela 2+ goals

52%

Matchakhela 3+ goals

25%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 1+ goals

84%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 2+ goals

55%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)

47%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.13 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II attack 1.37 + Matchakhela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Matchakhela scores more

37%

level

22%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II scores more

41%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff