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Matchakhela vs Kolkheti Poti — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Potiadvanced
7/22/2023David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matchakhela16%
×Draw16%
Kolkheti Poti68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.37
Kolkheti Poti
2.93

Kolkheti Poti creates 114% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.83
Kolkheti Poti
2.36

allows per match

Matchakhela
3.50
Kolkheti Poti
0.91

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
32%
Matchakhela or Kolkheti Poti
84%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
84%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
6%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
75%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
40%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
16%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
94%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
78%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
19%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Kolkheti Poti defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kolkheti Poti attack 2.36 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Matchakhela scores more
16%
level
16%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
68%

Kolkheti Poti at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Matchakhela 1–7 Kolkheti Poti

Kolkheti Poti beat Matchakhela 7-1 in David Kipiani Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.