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Matchakhela vs Gori — Liga 3 2024

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 6
Gori
Gori
11/21/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Matchakhela20%
×Draw22%
Gori59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.05
Gori
1.98

Gori creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.13
Gori
1.63

allows per match

Matchakhela
2.33
Gori
0.97

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Gori+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Gori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
41%
Matchakhela or Gori
78%
Draw or Gori
80%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
7%
Gori wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
65%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
28%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
9%
Gori 1+ goals
86%
Gori 2+ goals
59%
Gori 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
25%
Gori (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Gori away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.13 + Gori defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Gori attack 1.63 + Matchakhela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Matchakhela scores more
20%
level
22%
Gori scores more
59%

Gori at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Matchakhela 0–10 Gori

Gori beat Matchakhela 10-0 in Liga 3 on November 21, 2024.