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Matchakhela vs Dila — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Dila
Dilaadvanced
8/8/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matchakhela19%
×Draw17%
Dila65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.56
Dila
2.95

Dila creates 89% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.83
Dila
2.40

allows per match

Matchakhela
3.50
Dila
1.30

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Dila+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Dila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
35%
Matchakhela or Dila
83%
Draw or Dila
81%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
8%
Dila wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
79%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
46%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
21%
Dila 1+ goals
95%
Dila 2+ goals
79%
Dila 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
22%
Dila (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Dila away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.83 + Dila defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dila attack 2.40 + Matchakhela defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Matchakhela scores more
19%
level
17%
Dila scores more
65%

Dila at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Dila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Matchakhela 1–6 Dila

Dila beat Matchakhela 6-1 in David Kipiani Cup on August 8, 2022.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.