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Matchakhela vs Borjomi — Liga 3 2024

Matchakhela
Matchakhela
FT
1 – 0
Borjomi
Borjomi
3/28/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Matchakhela41%
×Draw22%
Borjomi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matchakhela
1.81
Borjomi
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Matchakhela
1.13
Borjomi
1.07

allows per match

Matchakhela
2.33
Borjomi
2.50

finishing

Matchakhela+0.00on par
Borjomi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matchakhela ↓

Borjomi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Matchakhela or draw
63%
Matchakhela or Borjomi
78%
Draw or Borjomi
59%

Winning margin

Matchakhela wins by 2+
22%
Borjomi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Matchakhela 1+ goals
84%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
54%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
27%
Borjomi 1+ goals
82%
Borjomi 2+ goals
51%
Borjomi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Matchakhela (draw refunded)
53%
Borjomi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matchakhela at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Borjomi away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matchakhela attack 1.13 + Borjomi defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Borjomi attack 1.07 + Matchakhela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Matchakhela scores more
41%
level
22%
Borjomi scores more
37%

Matchakhela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Matchakhela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Matchakhela vs Borjomi

Matchakhela beat Borjomi 1-0 in Liga 3 on March 28, 2024.