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Matagalpa vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2026

Matagalpa
Matagalpa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
11/23/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Matagalpa32%
×Draw25%
Real Estelí43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matagalpa
1.29
Real Estelí
1.54

Real Estelí creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 150 away

creates per match

Matagalpa
1.54
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

Matagalpa
1.41
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

Matagalpa+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matagalpa ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Matagalpa or draw
57%
Matagalpa or Real Estelí
75%
Draw or Real Estelí
68%

Winning margin

Matagalpa wins by 2+
14%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Matagalpa 1+ goals
72%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
37%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
14%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
79%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
45%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Matagalpa (draw refunded)
43%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matagalpa at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matagalpa attack 1.54 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Matagalpa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Matagalpa scores more
32%
level
25%
Real Estelí scores more
43%

Real Estelí at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Matagalpa 1–0 Real Estelí

Matagalpa beat Real Estelí 1-0 in Primera Division on November 23, 2025.