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Matagalpa vs Deportivo Ocotal — Primera Division 2026

Matagalpa
Matagalpa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
4/17/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 15Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Matagalpa56%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Ocotal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matagalpa
1.94
Deportivo Ocotal
1.14

Matagalpa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 112 away

creates per match

Matagalpa
1.54
Deportivo Ocotal
0.86

allows per match

Matagalpa
1.41
Deportivo Ocotal
2.33

finishing

Matagalpa+0.00on par
Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matagalpa ↓

Deportivo Ocotal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Matagalpa or draw
78%
Matagalpa or Deportivo Ocotal
78%
Draw or Deportivo Ocotal
44%

Winning margin

Matagalpa wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Matagalpa 1+ goals
86%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
58%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
30%
Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Matagalpa (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matagalpa at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 76 matches

Deportivo Ocotal away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.33 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matagalpa attack 1.54 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Deportivo Ocotal attack 0.86 + Matagalpa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Matagalpa scores more
56%
level
22%
Deportivo Ocotal scores more
22%

Matagalpa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Matagalpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Matagalpa 2–1 Deportivo Ocotal

Matagalpa beat Deportivo Ocotal 2-1 in Primera Division on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Fonseca Amador in Matagalpa.