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Masters Security vs Blue Eagles — Super League 2026

Masters Security
Masters Security
FT
2 – 2
Blue Eagles
Blue Eagles
8/4/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Dedza Stadium (Dedza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Masters Security23%
×Draw28%
Blue Eagles49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters Security
0.81
Blue Eagles
1.32

Blue Eagles creates 63% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 67 away

creates per match

Masters Security
0.67
Blue Eagles
0.97

allows per match

Masters Security
1.67
Blue Eagles
0.96

finishing

Masters Security+0.00on par
Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters Security ↓

Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Masters Security or draw
51%
Masters Security or Blue Eagles
72%
Draw or Blue Eagles
77%

Winning margin

Masters Security wins by 2+
7%
Blue Eagles wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Masters Security 1+ goals
56%
Masters Security 2+ goals
19%
Masters Security 3+ goals
5%
Blue Eagles 1+ goals
73%
Blue Eagles 2+ goals
38%
Blue Eagles 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Masters Security (draw refunded)
32%
Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters Security at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Blue Eagles away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters Security attack 0.67 + Blue Eagles defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Blue Eagles attack 0.97 + Masters Security defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Masters Security scores more
23%
level
28%
Blue Eagles scores more
49%

Blue Eagles at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masters Security vs Blue Eagles

Masters Security and Blue Eagles drew 2-2 in Super League on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Dedza Stadium (Dedza).