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Masters FC vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

Masters FC
Masters FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
5/11/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Masters FC68%
×Draw23%
Mitundu Baptist9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters FC
1.65
Mitundu Baptist
0.42

Masters FC creates 293% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Masters FC
1.80
Mitundu Baptist
0.25

allows per match

Masters FC
0.60
Mitundu Baptist
1.50

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw
91%
Masters FC or Mitundu Baptist
77%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
32%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+
39%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals
81%
Masters FC 2+ goals
49%
Masters FC 3+ goals
23%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
34%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
7%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)
88%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.25 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Masters FC scores more
68%
level
23%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
9%

Masters FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masters FC vs Mitundu Baptist

Masters FC beat Mitundu Baptist 2-0 in Super League on May 11, 2026.