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Masters FC vs Karonga United — Super League 2026

Masters FC
Masters FC
Preview
12:30
Karonga United
Karonga United
10/17/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17
60%
Masters FC
model favours
60%25%16%

Karonga United win just 22% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masters FC60%
×Draw25%
Karonga United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters FC
1.62
Karonga United
0.69

Masters FC creates 135% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 82 away

creates per match

Masters FC
1.80
Karonga United
0.78

allows per match

Masters FC
0.60
Karonga United
1.44

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par
Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Karonga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw
84%
Masters FC or Karonga United
75%
Draw or Karonga United
40%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+
33%
Karonga United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals
80%
Masters FC 2+ goals
48%
Masters FC 3+ goals
22%
Karonga United 1+ goals
50%
Karonga United 2+ goals
15%
Karonga United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)
79%
Karonga United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Karonga United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Karonga United attack 0.78 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Masters FC scores more
60%
level
25%
Karonga United scores more
16%

Masters FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FC
WLLL
United
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Masters FC host Karonga United

October 17, 2026: Masters FC take on Karonga United in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.