Karonga United 1–2 Masters FC: Result & Stats

Karonga United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Masters FC

G. Sibale 17'

P. Ndhlovu 55'

S. Davie 33'

5/3/2026

Super League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karonga United54%

×Draw26%

Masters FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karonga UnitedExpected goals in this matchMasters FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.81

Karonga United

1.52

Masters FC

0.81

Karonga United creates 88% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

0.80

0.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Karonga United

1.24

Masters FC

0.80

allows per match

Karonga United

0.83

Masters FC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karonga United+0.00on par

Masters FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karonga United ↓

Masters FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karonga United or draw

80%

Karonga United or Masters FC

74%

Draw or Masters FC

46%

Winning margin

Karonga United wins by 2+

28%

Masters FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karonga United 1+ goals

78%

Karonga United 2+ goals

45%

Karonga United 3+ goals

20%

Masters FC 1+ goals

56%

Masters FC 2+ goals

19%

Masters FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Karonga United (draw refunded)

73%

Masters FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karonga United at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.83 · 75 matches

Masters FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karonga United attack 1.24 + Masters FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Masters FC attack 0.80 + Karonga United defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Karonga United scores more

54%

level

26%

Masters FC scores more

20%

Karonga United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Karonga United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

G. Sibale

33'

S. Davie

55'

P. Ndhlovu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff