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Masters FC vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Masters FC
Masters FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
Unknown 45+2'
7/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masters FC53%
×Draw27%
Kamuzu Barracks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters FC
1.46
Kamuzu Barracks
0.80

Masters FC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 81 away

creates per match

Masters FC
1.80
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Masters FC
0.60
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw
79%
Masters FC or Kamuzu Barracks
73%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
47%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+
27%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals
77%
Masters FC 2+ goals
43%
Masters FC 3+ goals
18%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
55%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
19%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)
72%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Masters FC scores more
53%
level
27%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
21%

Masters FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masters FC vs Kamuzu Barracks

Masters FC beat Kamuzu Barracks 1-0 in Super League on July 5, 2026.

Goals: ? (45+2').