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Masters FC vs Creck — Super League 2026

Masters FC
Masters FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Creck
Creck
P. Phiri 81'
H. Nasiyaya 65'
M. Gabeya 45+3' (OG)
R. Ntafu 16'
6/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masters FC55%
×Draw26%
Creck18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masters FC
1.48
Creck
0.73

Masters FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 35 away

creates per match

Masters FC
1.80
Creck
0.86

allows per match

Masters FC
0.60
Creck
1.17

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par
Creck+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Creck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw
82%
Masters FC or Creck
74%
Draw or Creck
45%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+
28%
Creck wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals
77%
Masters FC 2+ goals
43%
Masters FC 3+ goals
19%
Creck 1+ goals
52%
Creck 2+ goals
17%
Creck 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)
75%
Creck (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Creck away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Creck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Creck attack 0.86 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Masters FC scores more
55%
level
26%
Creck scores more
18%

Masters FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
R. Ntafu
45+3'
M. GabeyaOwn goal
65'
H. Nasiyaya
81'
P. Phiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Masters FC 1–3 Creck

Creck beat Masters FC 3-1 in Super League on June 21, 2026.

Goals: R. Ntafu (16'), M. Gabeya (45+3' o.g.), H. Nasiyaya (65'), P. Phiri (81').