Masters FC 1–0 Chitipa United: Result & Stats

Masters FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chitipa United

4/26/2026

Super League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masters FC65%

×Draw23%

Chitipa United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Masters FCExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.54

Masters FC

1.67

Chitipa United

0.54

Masters FC creates 209% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 65 away

1.80

creates per match

0.48

0.60

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Masters FC

1.80

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

Masters FC

0.60

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masters FC+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masters FC ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Masters FC or draw

88%

Masters FC or Chitipa United

77%

Draw or Chitipa United

35%

Winning margin

Masters FC wins by 2+

37%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Masters FC 1+ goals

81%

Masters FC 2+ goals

50%

Masters FC 3+ goals

23%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

42%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

10%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Masters FC (draw refunded)

85%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masters FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masters FC attack 1.80 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Masters FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Masters FC scores more

65%

level

23%

Chitipa United scores more

12%

Masters FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Masters FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff