Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Masr vs Pharco — Premier League 2018

Masr
Masr
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pharco
Pharco
4/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Group - 7Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Masr40%
×Draw32%
Pharco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masr
1.05
Pharco
0.81

Masr creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 78 away

creates per match

Masr
1.02
Pharco
0.63

allows per match

Masr
1.00
Pharco
1.08

finishing

Masr+0.00on par
Pharco+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Pharco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Masr or draw
72%
Masr or Pharco
68%
Draw or Pharco
60%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+
16%
Pharco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals
65%
Masr 2+ goals
28%
Masr 3+ goals
9%
Pharco 1+ goals
56%
Pharco 2+ goals
19%
Pharco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)
59%
Pharco (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Pharco away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Pharco defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Pharco attack 0.63 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Masr scores more
40%
level
32%
Pharco scores more
28%

Masr at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masr vs Pharco

Masr beat Pharco 1-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2026.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.