Masr 0–1 National Bank of Egypt: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

National Bank of Egypt

7/6/2024

Premier League · Round 30Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Masr36%

×Draw29%

National Bank of Egypt35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchNational Bank of Egypt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.07

Masr

1.10

National Bank of Egypt

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 97 away

1.02

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Masr

1.02

National Bank of Egypt

1.14

allows per match

Masr

1.00

National Bank of Egypt

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

National Bank of Egypt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Masr or draw

65%

Masr or National Bank of Egypt

71%

Draw or National Bank of Egypt

64%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

15%

National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

67%

Masr 2+ goals

30%

Masr 3+ goals

10%

National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals

66%

National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals

29%

National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

51%

National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.19 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + National Bank of Egypt defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.14 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Masr scores more

36%

level

29%

National Bank of Egypt scores more

35%

Masr at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Masr 0–1 National Bank of Egypt

National Bank of Egypt beat Masr 1-0 in Premier League on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.

Masr vs National Bank of Egypt — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier League: Masr 0–1 National Bank of Egypt