Masr 2–2 Misr EL Makasa: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Misr EL Makasa

12/24/2019

Premier League · Round 10Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Masr42%

×Draw29%

Misr EL Makasa29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchMisr EL Makasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.94

Masr

1.20

Misr EL Makasa

0.94

Masr creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 68 away

1.02

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Masr

1.02

Misr EL Makasa

0.87

allows per match

Masr

1.00

Misr EL Makasa

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Misr EL Makasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Masr or draw

71%

Masr or Misr EL Makasa

71%

Draw or Misr EL Makasa

58%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

18%

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

70%

Masr 2+ goals

34%

Masr 3+ goals

12%

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals

61%

Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals

24%

Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

59%

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Masr scores more

42%

level

29%

Misr EL Makasa scores more

29%

Masr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff