Masr 3–3 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

10/5/2023

Premier League · Round 3Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masr55%

×Draw25%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchBaladiyyat Al Mehalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.82

Masr

1.57

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.82

Masr creates 91% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

1.02

creates per match

0.65

1.00

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Masr

1.02

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

0.65

allows per match

Masr

1.00

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Masr or draw

80%

Masr or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

75%

Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

45%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

29%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

79%

Masr 2+ goals

46%

Masr 3+ goals

21%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

56%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

20%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

74%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Masr scores more

55%

level

25%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

20%

Masr at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff