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Masr vs Al Ittihad — Premier League 2018

Masr
Masr
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad
5/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Round - 5Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Masr40%
×Draw29%
Al Ittihad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masr
1.19
Al Ittihad
0.99

Masr creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 134 away

creates per match

Masr
1.02
Al Ittihad
0.99

allows per match

Masr
1.00
Al Ittihad
1.35

finishing

Masr+0.00on par
Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Al Ittihad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Masr or draw
70%
Masr or Al Ittihad
71%
Draw or Al Ittihad
60%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+
17%
Al Ittihad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals
70%
Masr 2+ goals
33%
Masr 3+ goals
12%
Al Ittihad 1+ goals
63%
Al Ittihad 2+ goals
26%
Al Ittihad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)
57%
Al Ittihad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Al Ittihad away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.35 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Al Ittihad defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Ittihad attack 0.99 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Masr scores more
40%
level
29%
Al Ittihad scores more
30%

Masr at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Masr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masr vs Al Ittihad

Masr and Al Ittihad drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.