Masis 5–3 Lernayin Artsakh: Result & Stats

Masis

FT

5 – 3

Lernayin Artsakh

8/31/2019

First League · Round 6Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Masis28%

×Draw19%

Lernayin Artsakh54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasisExpected goals in this matchLernayin Artsakh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

2.64

Masis

1.88

Lernayin Artsakh

2.64

Lernayin Artsakh creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

2.15

creates per match

1.74

3.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Masis

2.15

Lernayin Artsakh

1.74

allows per match

Masis

3.54

Lernayin Artsakh

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masis+0.00on par

Lernayin Artsakh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masis ↓

Lernayin Artsakh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Masis or draw

46%

Masis or Lernayin Artsakh

81%

Draw or Lernayin Artsakh

72%

Winning margin

Masis wins by 2+

14%

Lernayin Artsakh wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Masis 1+ goals

85%

Masis 2+ goals

56%

Masis 3+ goals

29%

Lernayin Artsakh 1+ goals

93%

Lernayin Artsakh 2+ goals

74%

Lernayin Artsakh 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Masis (draw refunded)

34%

Lernayin Artsakh (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masis at home — creates 2.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

Lernayin Artsakh away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masis attack 2.15 + Lernayin Artsakh defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lernayin Artsakh attack 1.74 + Masis defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Masis scores more

28%

level

19%

Lernayin Artsakh scores more

54%

Lernayin Artsakh at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lernayin Artsakh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff