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Mashuk-KMV vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
11/6/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mashuk-KMV32%
×Draw25%
SKA Rostov43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.31
SKA Rostov
1.54

SKA Rostov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.43
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.29
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
57%
Mashuk-KMV or SKA Rostov
75%
Draw or SKA Rostov
68%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
14%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
73%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
38%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
79%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
45%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
43%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.43 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
32%
level
25%
SKA Rostov scores more
43%

SKA Rostov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Mashuk-KMV 0–2 SKA Rostov

SKA Rostov beat Mashuk-KMV 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.