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Mashuk-KMV vs Rubin Yalta — Second League - Group 1 2020

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rubin Yalta
Rubin Yalta
10/22/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mashuk-KMV36%
×Draw27%
Rubin Yalta36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.23
Rubin Yalta
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.43
Rubin Yalta
1.17

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.29
Rubin Yalta
1.04

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Rubin Yalta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Rubin Yalta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
64%
Mashuk-KMV or Rubin Yalta
73%
Draw or Rubin Yalta
64%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
16%
Rubin Yalta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
71%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
35%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
13%
Rubin Yalta 1+ goals
71%
Rubin Yalta 2+ goals
35%
Rubin Yalta 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
50%
Rubin Yalta (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Rubin Yalta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.43 + Rubin Yalta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rubin Yalta attack 1.17 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
36%
level
27%
Rubin Yalta scores more
36%

Mashuk-KMV at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Mashuk-KMV 0–0 Rubin Yalta

Mashuk-KMV and Rubin Yalta drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.