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Mashuk-KMV vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
9/20/2025Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 10Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mashuk-KMV50%
×Draw28%
Novosibirsk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.33
Novosibirsk
0.78

Mashuk-KMV creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.06
Novosibirsk
0.96

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
0.61
Novosibirsk
1.61

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
78%
Mashuk-KMV or Novosibirsk
72%
Draw or Novosibirsk
50%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
24%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
74%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
38%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
15%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
54%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
18%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
69%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.06 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Mashuk-KMV defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
50%
level
28%
Novosibirsk scores more
22%

Mashuk-KMV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashuk-KMV vs Novosibirsk

Mashuk-KMV beat Novosibirsk 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Central Stadium.