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Mashuk-KMV vs Inter Cherkessk — Second League - Group 1 2020

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Cherkessk
Inter Cherkessk
8/23/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mashuk-KMV63%
×Draw19%
Inter Cherkessk17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
2.28
Inter Cherkessk
1.11

Mashuk-KMV creates 105% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.43
Inter Cherkessk
0.94

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.29
Inter Cherkessk
3.13

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Inter Cherkessk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Inter Cherkessk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
83%
Mashuk-KMV or Inter Cherkessk
81%
Draw or Inter Cherkessk
37%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
41%
Inter Cherkessk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
90%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
66%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
39%
Inter Cherkessk 1+ goals
67%
Inter Cherkessk 2+ goals
30%
Inter Cherkessk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
78%
Inter Cherkessk (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Inter Cherkessk away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.43 + Inter Cherkessk defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.28

Inter Cherkessk attack 0.94 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
63%
level
19%
Inter Cherkessk scores more
17%

Mashuk-KMV at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashuk-KMV vs Inter Cherkessk

Mashuk-KMV beat Inter Cherkessk 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.