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Mashujaa vs Mtibwa Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
M. Vuai 32'
R. Lusajo 26', 3'
S. Karihe 54', 15'
5/25/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mashujaa54%
×Draw29%
Mtibwa Sugar17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.29
Mtibwa Sugar
0.58

Mashujaa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.94
Mtibwa Sugar
0.55

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.62
Mtibwa Sugar
1.65

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Mtibwa Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
83%
Mashujaa or Mtibwa Sugar
71%
Draw or Mtibwa Sugar
46%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
26%
Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
72%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
37%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
14%
Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
44%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
12%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
76%
Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Mtibwa Sugar away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.94 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.55 + Mashujaa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mashujaa scores more
54%
level
29%
Mtibwa Sugar scores more
17%

Mashujaa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
R. Lusajo
15'
S. Karihe
26'
R. Lusajo
32'
M. Vuai
54'
S. Karihe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashujaa vs Mtibwa Sugar

Mashujaa beat Mtibwa Sugar 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 25, 2024.

Goals: R. Lusajo (3', 26'), S. Karihe (15', 54'), M. Vuai (32').

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.