Mashujaa 1–0 Mbeya City: Result & Stats

Mashujaa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mbeya City

11/22/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 7Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mashujaa47%

×Draw30%

Mbeya City24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MashujaaExpected goals in this matchMbeya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.78

Mashujaa

1.23

Mbeya City

0.78

Mashujaa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 24 away

0.80

creates per match

0.96

0.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mashujaa

0.80

Mbeya City

0.96

allows per match

Mashujaa

0.60

Mbeya City

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par

Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Mbeya City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw

76%

Mashujaa or Mbeya City

70%

Draw or Mbeya City

53%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+

21%

Mbeya City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals

71%

Mashujaa 2+ goals

35%

Mashujaa 3+ goals

13%

Mbeya City 1+ goals

54%

Mbeya City 2+ goals

18%

Mbeya City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)

67%

Mbeya City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.80 + Mbeya City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mbeya City attack 0.96 + Mashujaa defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mashujaa scores more

47%

level

30%

Mbeya City scores more

24%

Mashujaa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff