Mashujaa 2–0 Ihefu: Result & Stats | Ligi kuu Bara

Mashujaa

FT

2 – 0

Ihefu

9/16/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 3Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mashujaa49%

×Draw31%

Ihefu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MashujaaExpected goals in this matchIhefu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.65

Mashujaa

1.20

Ihefu

0.65

Mashujaa creates 85% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

0.93

creates per match

0.57

0.73

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mashujaa

0.93

Ihefu

0.57

allows per match

Mashujaa

0.73

Ihefu

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par

Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Ihefu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw

80%

Mashujaa or Ihefu

69%

Draw or Ihefu

51%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+

22%

Ihefu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals

70%

Mashujaa 2+ goals

34%

Mashujaa 3+ goals

12%

Ihefu 1+ goals

48%

Ihefu 2+ goals

14%

Ihefu 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)

71%

Ihefu (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.93 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Mashujaa defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mashujaa scores more

49%

level

31%

Ihefu scores more

20%

Mashujaa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff